Disclaimer: I have almost never been right about anything. Almost. The only things I have ever been right about were predictions made with my heart and not my head, so disregard any upcoming sentence that appears well thought out.
Disclaimer 2: I consider that Mega NFL Preview on Grantland to be asinine. Almost every prediction was based on a system the thrust of which was that good luck only begets bad luck and vice versa.
I did not care at all about the lockout. Granted, I didn't want an 18-game schedule -- I loathed the thought. But I would've sucked it up like Joe Buck on Aaron Rodgers' cock. I didn't care about the preseason, and I never do. Seeing a starting QB go 1-4 for 4 yds doesn't tell me he is going to have a shitty year. But lo and behold, when the regular season starts, I geek out. Any asinine opinion or story, rehashed countlessly though it is, becomes worth my time. The football erection that ESPN tries to force down my throat in July is suddenly gobbled with delight. Consider what follows to be me sharing the load...
AFC EAST
1. New York Jets: 11-5
I picked the Jets to beat the Pats in the playoffs last year (an example of thinking with my heart and not my head -- I hate the Patriots and my brother is a Jets fan so I'd like to see him have his day in the sun). Similarly, I pick them to win the division this year. I think the X-Factor is the polarizing Rex Ryan. Though he might hail from Clowntown, he always has his team ready to punch the Pats in the mouth, whereas the Bradys and Belichicks of the world seem to be at a mental impasse between a desire to appear outwardly professional and an inner hatred of the Jets.
I won't base the prediction entirely on the intangibles. The back-to-back AFC Championship games will have a positive effect on the Jets and many of their young, developing players. The addition of possession receivers Burress and Mason should help Mark Sanchez' completion percentage while Santonio Holmes will continue to bring playmaking ability to the table. The key to their season will be the running game. A moderately successful running game, combined with the presence of confident 3rd down receivers, and a terrific defense, is a recipe for success.
2. New England Patriots: 11-5
2 words: Cop Out. I just spent 2 excruciating attempts at paragraphs explaining why the Jets will be better than the Pats only to have them finish with the same record. Both teams have fairly easy schedules and I expect both to be playoff teams. I gave the Jets the edge because (1) I think they have the head-to-head advantage, (2) Tom Brady is a pussy, and (3) seriously, the Pats offensive dominance has to wane some time, right?
Although the Pats have seemingly run the same basic offense for years, they become very hard to plan for because of the unpredictability in the ways they use personnel. Looking at their defense, if the risk of acquiring Haynesworth pays off, I may be extremely underestimating this team. However, as much as it would delight me to hear a patented Carl Sylvester rant, I don't see that happening. Once a player checks out, he checks out. I equate Haynesworth to someone on unemployment, he will do just enough to keep getting those checks, but no one in their right mind will consider him a success. Defenses don't hinge on 1 player, but a top-shape Haynesworth in a 3-man line next to Vince Wilfork would give opposing offenses something to think about besides "Can we keep up with Tom Brady & Co.?"
3. Miami Dolphins: 8-8
Is Chad Henne really so bad that an entire fan base is too disgusted to show him any support? Great quarterbacks are REALLY hard to come by, as Dolphins fans must know. This is a list of the Dolphins' starting QBs this century: Jay Fiedler, Damon Huard, Ray Lucas, Brian Griese, A.J. Feeley, Sage Rosenfels, Gus Frerotte, Joey Harrington, Duante Culpepper, Cleo Lemon, Trent Green, John Beck, Chad Pennington, Tyler Thigpen. And yet it is downright despicable that the team endure one more year moment of Chad Henne? Fine, Henne has looked bad at times, really bad, with really no indication that he can be a star save for one dynamite performance against the Jets in his first year as starter. But he has done enough to deserve a 3rd go-round as starter for a team with expectations that are middling regardless of whether their QB's jersey says Henne, or Orton, or Moore, or Beck or whoever could've realistically been theirs this season. On the other hand I can see why the Dolphins fans are done with him. I expect Henne to improve just enough this season to compel the previous paragraph to preview the 2012 season as well.
Bottom Line: I look at the Dolphins and I see a team with an above-average defense and O-line. I think they can go 8-8 in what seems like a watered-down AFC this year.
4. Buffalo Bills: 2-14
How has this team been so bad for so long and still have no upside? Pathetic. None of us can imagine what it must be like to be a Bills fan, where no one in the organization gives a fuck.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens: 12-4
Another thing I won't understand about the plethora of previews I've read is why everyone is so sure the Ravens will regress. Granted their defense is older, but does that necessarily mean it's much worse? So long as the defense doesn't suck, it should confound the offenses of the Manning-less Colts, the Jaguars, the Browns twice, the Bengals twice, the Seahawks, the 49ers, the Cardinals, the Rams.
Granted, the O-line looks a bit worse. The Ravens astutely brought in the best blocking fullback in the league as reinforcement. I expect to see Flacco improve, and Anquan Boldin to improve on what was by far his worst year. Both of those things would give Ray Rice some running room off the handoff and in the passing game.
Spoiler Alert: I pick the Steelers to finish with the same record. I chose the Ravens to finish first because I think the levee will break (sorry New Orleans) and all those close losses against Pittsburgh will finally start turning into wins. The Ravens looked like the better team in the playoff matchup this year, and I think 1 team improved and the other remained the same.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4
The schedule is just too easy.
I hate this team. Why? Let's make an analogy... start with a lovable but stern black patriarch (Tomlin), then add a self-righteous, humility-faking, media-darling rapist (Roethlisberger), and mix-in a whining, drama-queen, who nonetheless can back up his bullshit (Harrison). It would be like if Fresh Prince of Bel Air still had Uncle Phil but replaced Will and Geoffrey with Kobe Bryant and Russell Crowe... a ratings firestorm that everyone hated.
Side-note: Is it possible I hate Big Ben because he twice got away with something that I would've gotten a life-sentence for? I got in more trouble in college for listening to music at a normal volume.
Anyway, enjoy:
3. Cleveland Browns: 6-10
Sorry, I'm not buying. I'm prepared to eat crow, but Colt McCoy and Peyton Hillis as a 1-2 punch for a playoff team? I'll choose to believe it when I see it.
This is a team that has a 2011 bandwagon merely because it looked kinda good at times last season a little, maybe? Every time a young quarterback doesn't suck, everyone seems to expect him to make huge strides his second season, when that is almost never the case. My point is this team was 5-11 last year, and Peyton Hillis had a Brady Anderson-esque anomaly of a year. Where does this team gain more than 1 win?
4. Cincinnati Bengals: 5-11
Why commit more than 2 minutes to this insanely bad yet probably not quite as bad as everyone thinks team?
AFC SOUTH
1. Tennessee Titans: 10-6
No team seems to ebb and flow more seamlessly than the Titans. I think this is simple really: the defense is good enough to be the best in the division (not a compliment), and the addition of Hasselbeck is actually an improvement over the Young/Collins/Rusty trifecta.
2. Houston Texans: 8-8
The Texans finished 6-10 last year. Many "experts" are picking them as a possible top seed in the AFC this year. Why? The Texans finished 6-10 last year. Keep in mind Arian Foster had a year that has to be considered great by historical standards.
The Texans need A LOT of pieces to fall into place. Namely, Arian Foster needs to repeat with another career year and Matt Schaub needs to prove that he hasn't already hit his ceiling (a very real possibility). Next, they need a marked defensive improvement. There, they are relying heavily on innovations made by Wade Phillips. Ask the Cowboys, Bills, Chargers, Eagles, and Broncos... Wade Phillips is no Anne Sullivan (but then again who is? Do you have any idea how fucking hard it is to teach a deaf and blind Alabamian to understand anything, let alone how to form cogent sentences? But I digress...)
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9
I am thoroughly convinced Peyton Manning is EVERYTHING to this team. I'm also convinced that every single person in the Colts organization knows it. Without Peyton, this simply is not a winning team.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11
I think I'm being generous here. I'm not sure but I think a Dolphins fan would murder a child to have David Garrard behind center. The Jaguars are like a fat guy who dumps his decent-looking girlfriend because he wants to do other chicks. Neither are getting anywhere.
AFC WEST
1. San Diego Chargers: 10-6
With the Chargers, it's same old, same old. They will put up great stats on both sides of the ball, make the playoffs despite underachieving early in the year, Philip Rivers will wear that douchey face and be a fucking petulant dick goddamnit I hate him I hate him... err... and they will not put up any serious fight in the playoffs.
I don't see any good reason why this is their year.
2. Oakland Raiders: 7-9
Your welcome Matt. I won't waste much breath with the rest of the AFC West. All 3 teams seem to be going in the right direction, but none have too high a ceiling.
3. Kansas City Chiefs: 7-9
I love Jamaal Charles, but I believe opposing defenses will be stacking the box and daring him to run. I don't believe in Matt Cassel, not in the slightest.
4. Denver Broncos: 6-10
This team would probably be 2-14 if Tebow started...
NFC EAST
1. Dallas Cowboys: 11-5
I normally wouldn't put stock in a team whose season is riding on a lot of ifs. For instance, if the offensive line holds up, Romo could have a great year. If Dez Bryant, Felix Jones, and Romo stay healthy, this offense could be electric. If Felix Jones can shake his head-scratching performance form last year, he could be a top back. Well, let's just call it a hunch that things will go their way.
And let's call a full season without Wade Phillips addition by subtraction.
2. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
I wanted, I mean really wanted, to keep the Eagles out of the playoffs. I wanted to burst their bubble. I want to say this season will end like many others; in disappointment and a realization that their city sucks. But I just think they get 10 wins out of this season.
I think Vick will be great at times, good at times, shitty at times, injured at times, and a dog-murderer always. That's not really taking much of a stance, but there's this: I'll believe Vick as a Super Bowl QB only when I see it.
3. New York Giants: 8-8
Say they were to make the playoffs somehow... could they even field a team? This preseason has presented the Giants with one obstacle after the next. Their running game should be among the best in the league, or at least good enough to open up the passing game. I am not concerned about the changes along the O-line. Frankly, their line was old and injury prone. It is nice to see some young blood -- especially in what is turning out to be somewhat of a transition year.
It is the Giants' defense that really bears the brunt of the preseason losses. Due to 3 season-ending injuries in the secondary, Aaron Ross went from the bubble to the starting lineup in a matter of days. The Giants will suit up several cornerbacks and linebackers who had no plans of playing in the NFL this year. The pass-rush should be terrific, barring injury, but will have to be virtually perfect to defeat teams that spread the ball like the Saints, Packers, and Pats (all of whom play the Giants this season).
4. Washington Redskins: 5-11
The Redskins line up a very solid defense. But what startles me is the astounding lack of playmakers on offense. I'm sure, by now, that the DC area is convinced Tim Hightower is the second-coming of Marshall Faulk and once John Beck steps in as starter in Week 4 the team will never lose again, but this offense is really, really bad.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers: 13-3
I am slobbin' that Kool-Aid big time. Now that they've crossed the Saints of their schedule, there remains few games that should be challenging. I don't think anyone disagrees. When I watch them I am amazed at how deep they are offensively. The only real prediction is how much each and every one of us will hate this team before the national media can even wipe their chins.
2. Minnesota Vikings: 9-7
Last year this team was 6-10 with a leprosy-infected Brett Favre, Tavaris Jackson, and Joe Webb at QB. I can't help but take the bait and say McNabb is an upgrade. Can it be that simple? Is it naive to think that the way Shanahan, and Reid before him, stomped all over McNabb's mind-grapes will beget a more calm, confident McNabb? (albeit with clearly diminished capacities). Is it petty to hope McNabb plays great if not just to see how the Philadelphia/Washington fanbases react?
Anyway, I don't see any reason to think that AP won't have another stellar year, and I have a feeling about Percy Harvin this year. The defense looks, well pretty piss-poor; but it's not like I'm predicting the Vikes to set the world aflame.
3. Chicago Bears: 7-9
Jay Cutler sucks.
4. Detroit Lions: 6-10
Do you remember how many years people were saying "this is the year the Arizona Cardinals make the playoffs" before it actually happened? It was clear that the team was moving in the right direction, but every year they just seemed to fall flat. That's how I feel about the Lions. It is clear that they are finally making smart moves after the patio-turd that was the Matt Millen era. I just don't think that they're there yet. At no point last year, even at their best, did I say to myself "hmmm this looks like a playoff team." I like Matt Stafford, but he would have to make a HUGE leap for this team to be a contender.
NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons: 12-4
I don't buy Julio Jones as an immediate game-changing presence, BUT, playmaking wide-receiver was a hole that the Falcons did their best to fill. Otherwise, I don't think the Falcons got any better or worse than last year -- which is certainly not a bad thing considering they were the #1 overall seed in the NFC.
I love the Falcons' slow-pounding style (and I've used it several times myself). It has actually become quite unique in an increasingly pass-heavy league. There are simply very few answers for a team that can consistently sustain 6, 7, 8 minute drives. If the Falcons can improve defensively, they will be a powerhouse.
2. New Orleans Saints: 11-5
This division will quite likely come down to the December 26th Falcons-Saints game, and I'm going with the Falcons. The Saints looked damn good last night, but both teams agreed pregame to not play defense. I think the Falcons win a dogfight against most teams, Saints included.
Side-note: I love Mark Ingram. I wanted the Giants to draft him despite RB not being a major need. He will be electrifying in the NFL, but I don't think he will break out this year. If he does, the rest of the league should take notice.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8
A 2-game dip in the standings wouldn't necessarily be a regression, and I don't consider it so. The Bucs' 10 wins last year came against the Panthers (2x), the Browns, the Bengals, the Rams, the Cards, the 49ers, the Redskins, the Seahawks and the Saints (in week 17 after they clinched the 5-seed). Those were 10 bad teams.
I like the offensive core the Bucs have put together, but I'm not sure that I love them. I'd like to feel those guys up, I mean out, out, for a year before I decide if they're winners or losers.
4. Carolina Panthers: 4-12
Think of the '08 or '09 Chiefs. I.E.: A team that loses a lot of close games.
NFC WEST
1. St. Louis Rams: 9-7
In Spags I trust. I'm not a believer in this team. I just think they're the best of a bad bunch. Think of an average girl who surrounds herself with butt-ugly friends.
2. Arizona Cardinals: 7-9
Take it from me: Beanie Wells is terrible. He showed not one flash of brilliance last season. Also, I can't pick a team to win a division if their fanbase is excited to have Kevin Kolb on board.
3. Seattle Seahawks: 6-10
The team will start 1-10 before an earthquake destroys their home stadium as well as most of metro Seattle and the nation gets behind the team, which leads to a 5-game win streak and the feel-good sports story of the year. Guaranteed.
4. San Francisco 49ers: 4-12
No seriously guys, this is the year Alex Smith puts it all together.
PLAYOFFS
AFC WILD-CARD ROUND
5. Steelers over 4. Titans
3. Chargers over 6. Patriots
NFC WILD-CARD ROUND
3. Cowboys over 6. Eagles
5. Saints over 4. Rams
AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND
1. Ravens over 5. Steelers
2. Jets over 3. Chargers
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND
1. Packers over 5. Saints
2. Falcons over 3. Cowboys
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Ravens over 2. Jets
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
1. Packers over 2. Falcons
SUPER BOWL
Packers 30 - Ravens 16
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